Archive for May, 2009
Check The Data Guys.
Old Thor was kicking back waiting for the Lateline Business show to start last night – we think the Horned one has a thing for Ali Moore but daren’t mention it – when a story on coal came up. Unusual for the ancient one, he didn’t fire up into a tirade and then settle into the usual funk. This time he went quiet, wandered off the library and hammered out an email to the ABC only to find he couldn’t send it.
So rather than waste a good letter, here it is in it’s entirety. If you are from the ABC please learn to use use an email address not a data entry form. Blocking spam is one thing, but blocking valid feedback is quite another.
Dear Lateline.
I tuned in last night to your story about clean coal and was dismayed with your question to the coal industry spokesman along the lines of “Do you accept global warming”. It was put across in a manner as if you were asking “Do you believe in God?”.
Can you please be a little more skeptical or at least neutral on the matter. Put yourselves above the politics and have a look at the actual temperature data before asking questions. I assure you most of your “guests” haven’t bothered. In fact a good question to ask global warming proponents and skeptics alike is “Have you looked at the data?” followed by “Can you describe the key features of it?”.
The actual temperature data can be found at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Yanks can be annoying, but they are really good with public access to things like this.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/deutnat.txt
The temperature profile of this planet over the last half million years from the Vostok Ice Cores is below. (Editors Note: Click on the images for a close up)
The scale is degrees variation from present. Now is at the far right. The annotated picture below shows some key features that anyone who has looked at it should be aware of and anyone who is studying it would be expected to have reasoned explanations for.
Most of the global warming arguments only look at the last few centuries as they attempt to show that temperature change is caused by man. The problem with doing this is that it is a bit like looking at the recent share market and assuming because it is currently down, that it has always been down. The last few centuries is about a millimeter of the data on the far right of the graph. The so called “Hockey Stick” effect that all the caffuffle is manifests itself in the spike in the very last data point.
It may be possible to ignore the periodic patterns, but would require an explanation as to where they went. The periodic cycles are driven by something. For them to stop would require a significant change in whatever that thing was.
Perhaps it may be worth your while to find a mathematician or engineer and ask them how you add up a collection of periodic curves to obtain a “flat spot”. While you are at it ask them how “flat” such a flat spot is really likely to be and what would you expect if you were inside one. Another question for the maths guy when you talk to him is what would you expect to see when such a “flat” spot was ending.
There are also valid questions about whether CO2 levels and temperature are a causal relationship or a temporal one. (One causes the other, or do they both occur at the same time but aren’t causally related)
Anyone who has looked at the actual data should also be aware of the flat spot on the right. They should be aware and can account for the repeating saw toothed pattern and they should be able to state that the mean temperature is about -4 degrees colder than present. If they can’t, then nail them.
The big problem is that you are in an unusual flat spot. It gave you a fairly flat environment within which to develop civilization, but it is long overdue to end. The planet is normally a lot colder, and the normal temperature variations are huge by comparison with anything humans can dream up. Any analysis has to not only factor in proportionally small human effects – but also account for the massive natural effects.
What you are doing is equivalent to measuring the temperature in a room, blaming it on someone leaving the stove turned on while ignoring whether it be summer or winter.
The human response needs to be framed accordingly. In simple terms are you trying to stop a rising tide by marching into the sea and commanding it so? Last time that was tried it failed dismally but was endlessly amusing.
If large scale temperature change is inevitable – and early analysis of the long term trend components suggests it is – then are you perhaps taking the wrong strategy in trying to stop a rising tide, when you should be preparing to ride with it? I would suggest you think about the consequences of making the wrong call. Perhaps you should be moving cities rather than trying to clean up?
In any case, opinions on whether the temperature will go up, down or forever remain the same aside, can you sort out the cheer squad from the players by asking some pointed questions to see if they even have looked at the data? And don’t assume they have just because they have lots of letters after their names. That is like assuming a priest is moral because he wears a collar. Science in a democracy is political – and in this day and age science funding is dependent on having “with application to climate change research” somewhere highly visible on the front of the research submission.
Don’t fall for the argument that “well I didn’t but respected scientist such and such did” or “it’s far too complicated for a simple analogy and requires extensive computer modeling to understand” because that only boils down to ” I didn’t look, I assume that someone else did” or “I don’t understand math but I assume that the person who wrote the software does”. What is that story about “Ass You and Me” ?
By the way how do you spell clusterfuck? Is that two words or one?
In fact if you have a situation where two scientists agree on something and don’t answer a question with “On one hand it could be this and on the other hand it could be that” then you know you have a problem. They are a bit like economists in fact.
Your Sincerely
Thor.
Horned God Of The Anglo Germanic People.
Editors Note: Cough! Ancient old bastard with a silly hat more like it. Cough!
May 20 2009 | Thoughts of Thor | No Comments »
Ooooh A Slippery Dip!
We are all used to looking at the price of gold in USD. It is interesting to think of how much gold a single $USD will buy you. Even though we no longer use the gold standard there is a reasonable argument that the value of gold is effectively constant and currencies vary relative to it.
The chart below (click on it for a larger version) shows how much gold one $USD buys. The interesting thing to note is that it has been falling like a stone ever since April 2001, which if I recall correctly is before Sept 11 and the current War so we can’t blame that. In fact it lines up with the first NASDAQ bottom of the Tech Wreck.
It seems the US never really recovered from their IT industry crashing. (Probably because they sent all their work to India afterwards – but that is a different story).
In stock market terms this is about as straight a line as you can get by the way. Just remember this is over 8 years of relentless decline.
It reflects a steady and massive erosion in US buying power that has only just leveled out thanks to various games being played with currency in the current crisis. Rumors are that the US does not want their currency to go below a thousandth of an ounce (0.001 on the chart) which is where it has paused. Whether this is simply a dead cat bounce or not only time will tell.
If this makes you feel worried, then remember that your currency is probably only a fraction of the $USD
$USD Buying Power
May 07 2009 | Economics | No Comments »
What Happened To Them?
Thor is worried. It seems you have either lost or miscounted some very important nano devices that are meant to be part of your ecosystem. Namely carbon scrubbers. Surely you know about them, they are meant to be all over the place.
To provide some context, last night as has become “tradition” those of us who couldn’t find anything else urgent to do had to sit through an episode of Master Chef followed by the horned one displaying his culinary prowess. This time it was all about Thor’s discovery of chile, probably from reading the recipe on this site if I do say so myself although he would never admit it.
Anyway after a memorable **cough** culinary experiment involving habenoro chillis, Jalapeño chillis, meat, beans and very little else apart from large quantities of beer the conversation turned to methane production – as it does after consuming large quantities of the aforementioned on an empty stomach.
That in turn lead to you humans and your current obsession with global warming and CO2 which got old Thor very worried.
The problem is that there shouldn’t be any problem. The whole planet is meant to be chock full of carbon scrubbers. You have been pumping out their byproduct and using it to power your motor vehicles for a century or so.
To see if you still have any, go find a green house, pump a pile of CO2 into it and stand back. You should find after a while that the CO2 diminishes, the plants get bigger and if you wait long enough will turn into oil that you can dig up, burn off and the whole cycle repeats.
Now most of your carbon scrubbers aren’t in fact on the land. When this was all kicked off there wasn’t much on land apart from rocks. The bulk of them are in the oceans. But you shouldn’t need to worry about them as they operate on a self regulating cycle.
Remember the island ecosystem exam question every biologist and environmental scientist did in first year uni? The predator-prey model based on a wolf and deer population on an island. An increase in deer numbers creates a jump in the number of wolves, which reduces the number of deer, which causes some wolves to starve. Less wolves means the deer population jumps and the whole thing repeats.
Standard first year stuff. You end up with a simple harmonic motion equation none of you would have forgotten. Particularly the guys who chose bio in the first place because they hated maths and the idea of having to solve wave equations during an exam wasn’t high on their list of expectations.
Well your carbon scrubbers – unless you have totally screwed things up – use the same cycle. Just think of the whole planet as an island of sorts. More CO2 causes an increase in carbon scrubber numbers which increase the rate that CO2 is pulled out of the atmosphere. This occurs until such a point that the CO2 level can’t support the whole carbon scrubber population and some die off. That in turn causes an increase in CO2 and the whole cycle repeats. There is a bit of a lag, but not a large one, these things reproduce pretty quickly.
It worked perfectly well back in the carboniferous and Thor can’t figure out why it doesn’t work now. These things are worse than cockroaches. Once they are in place, barring the sun going nova they are impossible to get rid of. Even if you have just a single one of them they should in theory reproduce to fill all available planetary surface area in no time at all. And to top if off they compete with each other to become even more efficient and fill every available gap in an ecosystem as time goes on.
Nasty little gadgets really, you would not believe the mountain of nanoethics paperwork that went with these things. Everything has to be proven on paper first, all work done in a biosafety level 4 or above lab, spot checks from grumpy old swiss gnomes etc etc. A right pain in the arse actually.
So if they have stopped working we really would like to know. Could you go and have a look? Thor is worried.
Anyway got to go – seems my personal methane production is about to overcame my capacity to absorb.
May 05 2009 | Thoughts of Thor | No Comments »
Scary Scary Thought
Well at least Thor is off his short lived get fit kick that started when he overheard a couple of the Valkyries comment on how his formerly barrel chest seems to have dropped to his navel. The Valkyries really shouldn’t talk, Caesar hadn’t crossed the Rhine the last time any of them could even spell the word virgin let alone pass for one. Given that most of their formerly perky nipples can now shake hands with their navels, it really was a case of the pot calling the kettle black. The phrase “gaggle of cackling hags” does to spring to mind here – just don’t say I said it.
Anyway after three months of Thor vegging on the couch complete with Lycra pants and sporran, the Biggest Looser comes to an end, promising to put a close to this entertaining – but futile episode. Except no one had counted on some bright spark at the local TV station deciding to put a cooking show into the same time slot as a weight loss program…..
If that’s not deliberate cruelty I don’t know what is. Here you have an audience of people with an unhealthy appetite for food stressing themselves into complete dietary dysfunction, taking out soon never to be used again gym memberships, suddenly having endless plates of the most delicious food waved in front of their pudgy little faces.
Needless to say the horned one now thinks he can cook. Which wouldn’t be so bad except Thor is a typical Anglo Germanic strictly meat and three veg type of guy. Gourmet cooking to him and his hordes consists of opening a beer, firing up the barbie, heat meat until it starts to blacken, put potatoes, carrots and peas in microwave for two minutes, throw everything onto a plate and eat.
The closest this guy gets to a herb crust is when he drops the steaks onto a newly mowed lawn.
The deer and unicorn have already buggered off lest they become the target of some misplaced gastronomic experiment. The staff in the kitchen are about to go on strike and the normally hearty eating dwarfs have all mysteriously decided to go on a strict frozen dinner only diet.
This is going to be a very, very long three months…
May 04 2009 | Thoughts of Thor | No Comments »
A Reference to Pigs.
Thor is not happy, again… He came across this site during one of his searches for “educational videos” if you catch my meaning, and it seems that in an earlier post I should not have described you as “Thor’s beer guzzling, lactose digesting, dog loving, war mongering, errant flaming Anglo Germanic children”. It seems that this is far too technical and I left out a reference to pork…
So to correct the matter and provide a proper description of the distinguishing features of the Anglo Germanic’s other than the alternative of “Big nosed gwailo” that has been suggested.
“Thor’s beer guzzling, milk drinking, pig eating, dog loving, war mongering, ferociously independent errant flaming Anglo Germanic children”.
which even in his cups put a smile on his face.
May 03 2009 | Thoughts of Thor | No Comments »
Unacceptable.
Thor is pissed, again and this time with good reason.
It was one of those days. As you no doubt are aware Thor isn’t too fond of his children worshiping Middle Eastern deities. Takes it personally I am afraid. In fact he isn’t too fond of any form of idolatry including that of himself. Foreign idols, false gods, lack of humility and all of that. Makes him cringe when he sees you on your hands and knees talking to a piece of wood – no matter how grandiose the building it is situated in. It’s just one of those things that is best to be avoided.
You have been doing if for a couple of thousand years now, haven’t you figured out it doesn’t do anything? Besides even if the principal worked it, which it doesn’t, it wouldn’t work for you anyway because that is a Semitic god you are attempting to “commune” with and you aren’t Semites. This isn’t the sort of game where you can change team colors just because the other guys are offering forgiveness and eternal life for all and sundry. Its an ancestral thing, you are stuck with the horned one whether you like it or not. By the way the Semites aren’t really interested in a mob of beer swilling, pork eating Anglo Germanics stampeding over their idea of paradise either. Just because Rome or Constantinople says something doesn’t make it true. Surely you have worked that one out by now.
Anyway back to the story, when old Thor discovered that Australia’s ruddy commander in chief wasn’t in fact a child of Kant’s enlightenment that had been cheered into office by the masses but was to quote the horned and hairy one “another flaming opportunistic idol worshiping turncoat with one foot on the shoulders of the religious right and one foot on the shoulders of the loony left“ we all had the joy of putting up with a morning of the usual tirade about – you guessed it, “Semites, money lenders and those idiots in Rome”. Although if I recall Canberra, George Bush and christian fundamentalists did feature rather prominently.
Now this would have been all well and good, we could have made excuses, left him to his ale and form guide and made ourselves scarce for a while. But then comes along Australia’s new defense white paper… I really do wish the Aussies wouldn’t do this to me, totally ruined any hope at all of this being a good day.
Thor agrees with the need for his beer guzzling, etc, etc Southern children to maintain a position of independence. It has always been this way and probably always will. Olympian indifference has it’s consequences after all.
Unfortunately in their new defense policy Australia wishes a position where support of their allies is optional. Something Australia will consider if it suits them. Not a smart move. Hours after this discovery the halls are still resonating with the words, “What bullshit is this!!”.
To remind you who seem to have forgotten, the way things work is that you can sort out your own internal squabbles as you did with WWI and WW2 if you cant find a better way to do it. The battles last century as the old Ostrogothi Empire (Catholic Axis) and the new Anglo Saxon one (Protestant Allies) finally sorted out their pecking order were memorable to say the least. Made a bit of a mess of Europe though and neither of you managed to get the upper hand on the Franks (Post Enlightenment fence sitters) .
But when it comes to external matters the position is that Thor’s children will unconditionally support each other. There is to be no question on this matter. You can sort out your position on various (usually American in this day and age) misadventures behind closed doors, but once any one of you takes the field you all do. That has been policy ever since the Romans tore you apart tribe by tribe, while the other tribes stood aside and watched convinced that the Romans would go away if you simply bent down and spread your cheeks. They didn’t and you all got a good fucking anyway.
It is one of those paradoxes that as long as you wish to maintain your Liberty as a people you have no liberty to choose on this matter. Choose liberty on this and lose your Liberty as a people. Hobson’s choice.
So Mr Rudd and associates it is strongly suggested that you and your people put aside the rhetoric and learn to read a map. Take away your usual allies and point to the friends that are left.
If you wish the unconditional support of your allies no matter what your foolishness, no matter what the threat, you in turn need to garauntee them yours.
May 03 2009 | Thoughts of Thor | No Comments »
You Ain’t Asian.
In Thor’s last interlude with sobriety he came across various pieces of information that seems to indicate the potential for trouble between you and the Yellow River folk. The large quantities of your mineral resources being purchased by the Han, a declining US influence, the need for Australia to ramp up it’s defense spend. This all spells trouble.
Thor agrees with the need for his “beer guzzling, milk drinking, pig eating, dog loving, war mongering, ferociously independent children” to maintain a position where you are not subject to the whim of the Yellow River tribes. You get along well enough as partners as long as you don’t interfere in each others affairs, but having one of you subject to the other just does not work. Chalk and Cheese I am afraid.
There used to be a rather large mountain range and the sub continent between Europe and China which with the notable exception of the Hun generally kept you from each others throats. The problem now you have extended your territories is that it puts you in contact with a people who are far more cohesive than you are. These guys do think about themselves as a united people, they do have long term strategies for themselves and unlike yourselves they don’t have trouble thinking further down the road than a year or so. Their social networks are stronger, they do business and trade far better than you do.
Militarily you recent history hasn’t put too many runs on the board against them either. Remember Vietnam and Korea? They were only buffer states. Taking on the Han on Han territory is not a fight you can win without the mandate of heaven and that is rarely granted.
So be on your toes. China will act in China’s interest while you lot wallow in a game of politically correct “fairness and equality to all” that no one apart from your selves is playing. A game your competitors – which is everyone – are quite happy to use against you.
The truth of the matter is life isn’t fair and you are not all equal any more than you are the same height. It’s dog eat dog and going to get worse as that planet of yours gets even more crowded.
The rules you want to play by only work if everyone is playing by them as well. Think about the cost of the welfare state that burdens up all your goods that is not paid by your competitors. The same goes for your attempts to clean up the planet by imposing a carbon tax on your products that your competitors don’t. Admirable sentiments for sure, but harmful policy.
The only way to level the playing field is for you to impose your social political and legal standards across every nation. That isn’t going to happen because it contradicts the basic tenant of independence that is the basis of your ethical system. You simply do not have the political will to impose yourselves on others to that extent. Strike another one up for the paradox of civilization I am afraid.
But back to the point. Thor’s children need to maintain their military, political and economic independence from everyone else. You can not put your selves in a position where your Liberty is subject to the whim of ethical systems that to your mind are alien. You are not the same as each other and no amount of political correct gas bagging is going to change that fact.
Do business with other people, trade with other people, marry other people, but never ever forget you are not and never will be as important to other cultures as their own people are.
Different people, different places, different problems, different solutions.
May 03 2009 | Thoughts of Thor | No Comments »
