Climate Change
Check The Data Guys.
Old Thor was kicking back waiting for the Lateline Business show to start last night – we think the Horned one has a thing for Ali Moore but daren’t mention it – when a story on coal came up. Unusual for the ancient one, he didn’t fire up into a tirade and then settle into the usual funk. This time he went quiet, wandered off the library and hammered out an email to the ABC only to find he couldn’t send it.
So rather than waste a good letter, here it is in it’s entirety. If you are from the ABC please learn to use use an email address not a data entry form. Blocking spam is one thing, but blocking valid feedback is quite another.
Dear Lateline.
I tuned in last night to your story about clean coal and was dismayed with your question to the coal industry spokesman along the lines of “Do you accept global warming”. It was put across in a manner as if you were asking “Do you believe in God?”.
Can you please be a little more skeptical or at least neutral on the matter. Put yourselves above the politics and have a look at the actual temperature data before asking questions. I assure you most of your “guests” haven’t bothered. In fact a good question to ask global warming proponents and skeptics alike is “Have you looked at the data?” followed by “Can you describe the key features of it?”.
The actual temperature data can be found at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Yanks can be annoying, but they are really good with public access to things like this.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/deutnat.txt
The temperature profile of this planet over the last half million years from the Vostok Ice Cores is below. (Editors Note: Click on the images for a close up)
The scale is degrees variation from present. Now is at the far right. The annotated picture below shows some key features that anyone who has looked at it should be aware of and anyone who is studying it would be expected to have reasoned explanations for.
Most of the global warming arguments only look at the last few centuries as they attempt to show that temperature change is caused by man. The problem with doing this is that it is a bit like looking at the recent share market and assuming because it is currently down, that it has always been down. The last few centuries is about a millimeter of the data on the far right of the graph. The so called “Hockey Stick” effect that all the caffuffle is manifests itself in the spike in the very last data point.
It may be possible to ignore the periodic patterns, but would require an explanation as to where they went. The periodic cycles are driven by something. For them to stop would require a significant change in whatever that thing was.
Perhaps it may be worth your while to find a mathematician or engineer and ask them how you add up a collection of periodic curves to obtain a “flat spot”. While you are at it ask them how “flat” such a flat spot is really likely to be and what would you expect if you were inside one. Another question for the maths guy when you talk to him is what would you expect to see when such a “flat” spot was ending.
There are also valid questions about whether CO2 levels and temperature are a causal relationship or a temporal one. (One causes the other, or do they both occur at the same time but aren’t causally related)
Anyone who has looked at the actual data should also be aware of the flat spot on the right. They should be aware and can account for the repeating saw toothed pattern and they should be able to state that the mean temperature is about -4 degrees colder than present. If they can’t, then nail them.
The big problem is that you are in an unusual flat spot. It gave you a fairly flat environment within which to develop civilization, but it is long overdue to end. The planet is normally a lot colder, and the normal temperature variations are huge by comparison with anything humans can dream up. Any analysis has to not only factor in proportionally small human effects – but also account for the massive natural effects.
What you are doing is equivalent to measuring the temperature in a room, blaming it on someone leaving the stove turned on while ignoring whether it be summer or winter.
The human response needs to be framed accordingly. In simple terms are you trying to stop a rising tide by marching into the sea and commanding it so? Last time that was tried it failed dismally but was endlessly amusing.
If large scale temperature change is inevitable – and early analysis of the long term trend components suggests it is – then are you perhaps taking the wrong strategy in trying to stop a rising tide, when you should be preparing to ride with it? I would suggest you think about the consequences of making the wrong call. Perhaps you should be moving cities rather than trying to clean up?
In any case, opinions on whether the temperature will go up, down or forever remain the same aside, can you sort out the cheer squad from the players by asking some pointed questions to see if they even have looked at the data? And don’t assume they have just because they have lots of letters after their names. That is like assuming a priest is moral because he wears a collar. Science in a democracy is political – and in this day and age science funding is dependent on having “with application to climate change research” somewhere highly visible on the front of the research submission.
Don’t fall for the argument that “well I didn’t but respected scientist such and such did” or “it’s far too complicated for a simple analogy and requires extensive computer modeling to understand” because that only boils down to ” I didn’t look, I assume that someone else did” or “I don’t understand math but I assume that the person who wrote the software does”. What is that story about “Ass You and Me” ?
By the way how do you spell clusterfuck? Is that two words or one?
In fact if you have a situation where two scientists agree on something and don’t answer a question with “On one hand it could be this and on the other hand it could be that” then you know you have a problem. They are a bit like economists in fact.
Your Sincerely
Thor.
Horned God Of The Anglo Germanic People.
Editors Note: Cough! Ancient old bastard with a silly hat more like it. Cough!
May 20 2009 12:40 pm | Thoughts of Thor
